Game 4 is here as the Spurs and Knicks continue this iconic series. San Antonio avoided a potential sweep with a 115-111 win in Game 3 at Madison Square Garden. Victor Wembanyama scored a game-high 35 points, while Jalen Brunson poured in 32. That was the Knicks first loss in 46 days and the two had a short turnaround with one day off ahead of Game 4. Let's take a look at my best bets for Game 4 after going 5-1 in Game 3. Game odds are via DraftKings. Best of luck!

Spurs at Knicks (-2.5): O/U 216.5

This NBA Finals is living up to the hype as every game has came down to the wire with lead changes and comebacks throughout. One thing that we haven't had yet that the NBA has so often is a blowout. The Knicks won by 10 and 1 point, whereas the Spurs by 4. I think a blowout come be coming tonight, but by who?

I have no idea. I lean the Spurs and think they even the series up, but I'd rather get value. I went under win margins and played the Spurs to win by 21 or more points at +1800 odds and the Knicks at +800. I also sprinkled Knicks -9.5 (+225) and Spurs -9.5 (+370), which are the safer options.

The first quarter was my only loss in Game 3, going Under 56.5 points by finishing with 55. Not only did Brunson and Wembanyama have chances to cash the Over in the final minute, the only points that were scored in that span was a Mitchell Robinson free throw. Go figure.

I am running it back on the first quarter Over as the Knicks want to run and struggled a tad in the opening frame with 42.1% from the field (8/19) and 25% from three (2/8). The Spurs, offensively, looked the best they have in the series, especially in the first quarter of Game 3. I will go Over 55.5 first quarter points one more time up to 56.5.

Pick: Knicks - 9.5 (0.5 unit), Spurs -9.5 (0.5 unit), 1Q Over 55.5 (1 unit)

OG Anunoby O/U 16.5 Points vs Spurs

Through three games, OG Anunoby has been incredible. Anunoby averages 20.3 points per game and hit the Over on his points prop in all three games with 17, 17, then a series-high 28 points in Game 3. Coming off 28 points, I will fade Anunoby and sell high by going Under his 16.5 points line.

Outside of Brunson and Anunoby, the Knicks went 20-of-50 from the field (40%) and 7-of-25 from three (28%) in Game 3. I'd not only expect the role players to be better, but Karl-Anthony Towns to have an improved Game 4 after going Under every single of his props in Game 3.

With Towns failing to score a single point in the fourth quarter through three games mixed with Brunson's takeover ability, I'd expect those two to account for a majority of the usage and scoring tonight, including the fourth quarter to avoid going back to San Antonio tied 2-2.

Anunoby has steadily shot between 10 and 13 shots in the series and 18 total free throws. That's good usage for the third scorer on the team, but any given night, Anunoby could become the fourth or fifth leading scorer on this Knicks team. I will go Under 16.5 points down to 15.5

Pick: OG Anunoby Under 16.5 Points (1 unit)

Jalen Brunson O/U 9.5 Rebounds + Assists vs Spurs

Brunson had his second 30-point game of the series dropping 32 in Game 3's loss. Brunson had 25 shot attempts for a second-straight game and averages 27.0 for the series. On the other hand, his rebounds and assists haven't been as glamorous.

In Games 2 and 3, Brunson went Over his combo prop of 9.5 rebounds and assists finishing with 11 and 10. In the last two games, Brunson has averaged 10.0 rebound chances and 9.0 potential assists per game, so he converted over 50% of both his total rebounds and assists. That cannot be relied on, especially at the high scoring clip he's holding, not to mention Brunson's taken 17 free throws.

After two straight Overs on his combo rebounds and assists prop, I will go Under 9.5 for Brunson in Game 4. I'd play this down to 8.5 for +100 or better.

Pick: Jalen Brunson Under 9.5 Rebounds + Assists (1 unit)

De’Aaron Fox O/U 5.5 Assists vs. Knicks

De'Aaron Fox led Game 3 in assists with eight and tied teammate Stephon Castle with 14 potential assists. Castle finished with five assists and Fox eight. Victor Wembanyama even poured in six assists on 11 potential assists. So in short, the Spurs were moving the ball well in Game 3 as they had 28 assists to the Knicks' 18.

The tempo of Game 3 picked up, so naturally, that fit Fox's play style. Whether or not Game 4 is similar reminds to be seen, but I'd expect Fox's assist numbers to decrease. Fox had five assists in each of the first two NBA Finals games and at least five in 16 out of 19 playoff games (84.2%). Fox totaled six or more in 10 out of 19 (52.6%), so a sharp contrast in 32.4% when you're getting 5.5 opposed to 4.5.

Five assists is the most common number Fox has landed on and he's posted at least five in 10 straight games. However, as the series goes on and Dylan Harper continues to turn heads — I'd say Fox is due for a stinker in the assists column and a good candidate to sell high on for Game 4. I like Fox Under 5.5 assists and would aim for +100 odds or better.

Pick: De'Aaron Fox Under 5.5 Assists (1 unit)

Season Record: 174-142-1 (55%) +21.07 units
NBA Finals Game 1 Record: 3-1 +2.59 units
NBA Finals Game 2 Record: 2-3 -1.44 units
NBA Finals Game 3 Record: 5-1 +4.20 units
NBA Finals Current Record: 10-5 (66.6%) +5.25 units
NBA Finals Future Pick: Series Over 5.5 Games (2 units at -170 odds)

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