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As Victor Wembanyama goes, so go the San Antonio Spurs.

It is not a knock on either of them that they may still be tired from the Western Conference Finals. That seven-game series clearly took everything Wembanyama and San Antonio had.

These Victor Wembanyama picks expect a sluggish showing in Game 1 of the NBA Finals, though that does not mean Wembanyama will struggle in all regards on Wednesday, June 3.

Victor Wembanyama best bet: Over 11.5 rebounds (-125 at bet365)

The New York Knicks look more like the Minnesota Timberwolves than the Oklahoma City Thunder. They are driven by a ball-centric guard while playing one rather traditional big man. While Rudy Gobert provides excellent rim protection, Karl-Anthony Towns’s underappreciated strong lower body may actually succeed better at keeping Victor Wembanyama away from the rim.

Amid relative offensive struggles in that second-round series, Wembanyama still cleared this modest rebounding prop in four of the five games he played genuine minutes in. (Let’s just ignore his stats from Game 4, when Wembanyama was ejected after playing 12 minutes for an egregious elbow to Naz Reid’s throat.)

The only game in which Wembanyama fell short of this prop was the clinching Game 6, when the San Antonio Spurs led by 13 at halftime and 26 by the end of the third quarter. Even Wemby’s 27 minutes did not require full effort. Otherwise, Wembanyama ruled the glass, averaging 15.5 rebounds per game.

Expect that version of Wembanyama early in this series. His legs are worn out from the Western Conference Finals, so his offensive aggression may lag. But even then, the Defensive Player of the Year can haul in a bounty of boards.

Wembanyama fell short of this points prop in three of those four notable games against the Timberwolves, not to mention in four of seven games against the Thunder. Amid understandable fatigue, this should be a low-scoring Game 1 from Wembanyama.

Doubting him to rack up blocks ties more to Karl-Anthony Towns’s offense than anything else. The New York Knicks should position Towns on the perimeter, both in a playmaking role and shooting 3-pointers, particularly as Towns has shot 48.9% from deep this postseason.

Wembanyama may be reluctant to stray from the paint, but every step toward the arc will lessen his blocks tally.

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