yahoo - 5/29/2026 8:06:42 PM - GMT (+2 )
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Jeez, Chet. Don’t let them take your lunch money.
Oklahoma City Thunder forward Chet Holmgren was already having a tough go against the San Antonio Spurs in the Western Conference finals before Devin Vassell emphatically swatted away a routine dunk by OKC’s 7-footer in Thursday’s ugly road loss.
Vassell piled on the dejected Holmgren with two scoops of trash talk as the crowd inside the Frost Bank Center exploded. While that humiliation of Holmgren makes the rounds on social media, my Spurs vs. Thunder predictions won’t count out the talented big man, who needs a long look in the mirror ahead of Game 7.
Our NBA picks like Holmgren to show up, or at least surpass the blowout-suppressed odds' expectations, as Oklahoma City is a 3.5-point home favorite on Saturday, May 30.
Spurs vs Thunder Game 7 predictionSpurs vs Thunder best bet: Chet Holmgren Over 13.5 points (-112)In the past two games, Chet Holmgren has been shooting 59% for a collective 26 points, including hitting all six FTAs.
Not bad for the Oklahoma City Thunder power forward... but not enough.
Passive play and limited minutes in recent blowouts are stunting his scoring.
With squashes in the last four games vs. the San Antonio Spurs, Holmgren’s minutes go from an average of 15 in the 1H to 11.9 in the 2H, including a piddly four minutes in the 4Q. His usage drops with it.
Saturday’s short spread writes a tight game script that keeps Chet on the floor. Projections sit as high as 16+ points, which is comfortably beyond his shrinking prop total.
COVERS INTEL: Rarely do you get precedent in these high-pressure scenarios, but Holmgren also struggled offensively vs. Indiana in last year's NBA Finals. He followed a 6-for-24 skid in Games 5 and 6 with a big 18-point effort in Game 7. Chet can answer the bell.Experience counts in the crunch, and the Oklahoma City Thunder have played in plenty of pressure cookers.
While the offense has been humming for the Thunder at home, their defense has made the biggest difference by being disruptive. They’ve forced the San Antonio Spurs into an average of 19.7 turnovers in three games at OKC (six more than in San Antonio), quickly translating those miscues into 25 average points off turnovers.
Nerves will get the better of the young Spurs and feed into those transition buckets for Oklahoma City.
Lost in a sea of slander, Holmgren has hauled in 22 total rebounds over the past two games. Those boards are even more impressive when you factor in his limited minutes in the second half of those blowouts.
Chet has been in position for 36 rebounding opportunities in that span and is aggressive on the offensive glass, with seven boards on the offensive end in the past two showings.
Spurs vs Thunder SGP- Thunder moneyline
- Chet Holmgren Over 13.5 points
- Chet Holmgren Over 8.5 rebounds
- Spread: Spurs +3.5 (-110) | Thunder -3.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Spurs +135 | Thunder -160
- Over/Under: Over 212.5 (-110) | Under 212.5 (-110)
The Thunder are 6-2 SU when coming off a double-digit loss on the season, and they were missing MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in two of those “bounce-back” spots. Overall, OKC is 15-5 SU off a loss, including a perfect 3-0 in the playoffs. Find more NBA betting trends for Spurs vs. Thunder.
How to watch Spurs vs Thunder Game 7| Location | Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK |
| Date | Saturday, May 30, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBC |
Not intended for use in MA.
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