Steve Kerr told ESPN in the season’s final week that he considers it roughly 50-50 whether he returns to the Golden State Warriors next season. That's the cleanest summary of the franchise itself: 50-50 is what the Warriors are. Half the year they looked like a team that could win a playoff series. Half the year they looked like a team that shouldn't have been in the play-in in the first place. Wednesday they were champions again. Friday they were a lottery team. And now, Kerr's decision could set off a domino effect felt throughout the entire NBA.

At Friday night's presser, Kerr said: "I still love coaching, but I get it. These jobs all have an expiration date." Indeed they do. Bob Myers already saw this coming. The longtime Warriors president and general manager stepped down three years ago. The odds are his timing was better than Kerr's. 

Is Golden State's ride over? The Thunder just won a title with their three best players all under 28. Victor Wembanyama is 22. Steph Curry, Draymond Green, and Jimmy Butler are not — and Butler just tore his ACL. The Warriors have only two notable young players: Brandin Podziemski, who has one year remaining on his deal, and Moses Moody, who could be out until 2027-28 with a torn patellar tendon. The Warriors are the oldest team and most injured team in the league before next season even begins.

If Kerr comes back, management wants a multi-year commitment because Warriors owner Joe Lacob doesn't want next season to be a “Last Dance,” ESPN reported. Most importantly, the front office wants philosophy tweaks, starting with diversifying the offense.

Kerr's motion offense was a key that unlocked the dynasty, but there has long been friction between his unwillingness to stray from that system and the front office's desire for evolution. During the 2020-21 season, the Warriors tripled the size of their analytics department and pushed Kerr to use the numbers. For a short while during that 39-win year, he tried it out. The next season, they won the championship. That gave him cover to keep doing things his own way. As the rest of the NBA has caught up with the pace-and-space era, Golden State's style now looks more like a vintage relic.

If Kerr walks, ESPN reported that the front office would consider external candidates, even exploring the college ranks. I'm told the Warriors love Florida Gators head coach Todd Golden. He's known the Lacob family for years, and league sources say they've long admired his coaching talent ever since he was an assistant coach at the University of San Francisco. But Golden would be no guarantee to leave Florida for a Warriors franchise that is, frankly, a less appealing destination than it used to be. With aging stars and no youthful core to build around, the Warriors may no longer be in a position to get exactly what they want.

The domino after Kerr is Draymond, whose name was in trade talks just months ago. He's 36. He plays every possession like he has something to prove, which is both why he's Draymond and why the miles are showing. But he has openly admitted the best path forward for him is to decline his player option for next season, and then sign a multiyear contract extension in Golden State. 

“We don’t want to play for anyone else. We built this thing together. Just as much impact as Steph Curry has had, as I’ve had, as Klay Thompson had, Steve’s had. We built this thing up from the ground,” Green said in early April to Tim Kawakami of The San Francisco Standard. “When Steve didn’t sign an extension, none of us made much of it because we know he should and will have the choice to be here. And we all want to finish with him.”

The domino after Draymond is Steph.

Curry just averaged 26.6 points on 39.3% from 3 and 63.7% true shooting — remarkably, the seventh-most efficient season of his Hall of Fame career. No one has ever played like this at 38. But to keep playing like this at 40, he needs some help. That is why for years, his message has been consistent: I want to maximize however long I have left in this league. 

After Friday’s loss, he said he wants to play multiple more years and he's open to an extension. He also said the Warriors need to stop saying "championship, championship, championship" every day and build the foundation again. He wants to stay, but he wants another ring and he knows the roster needs to be fixed. All of it's true at the same time.

A year ago, I compared Steph's situation to Tom Brady's last year in New England. The Patriots were headed for cap hell, the roster was aging, and the franchise was gearing up to retool. Brady saw the writing on the wall, left for Tampa Bay, and won his seventh ring.

Curry could be facing the same dilemma. The sentimental exit is Charlotte. He already asked his dad if he could wear 30 there. Going home would be a natural fit. But Charlotte just got smoked in the play-in and the desire for a homecoming may not be mutual anyway. Brady’s hometown San Francisco 49ers passed on him. They chose Jimmy Garoppolo.

If that happened to Curry, maybe his Tampa version could be Houston. There’s a strong core with a potential Kevin Durant reunion and a roster one elite shotmaker away from being a threat.

Brady didn't know he was leaving New England the spring before he left. Neither does Curry. But Curry also watched Thompson leave two summers ago for what looked like a contender. The grass wasn't greener.

Lacob has Curry's loyalty. He just doesn't have forever to use it. But no matter what the architects of the Warriors dynasty decide to do, Lacob has chosen his architect for the next era: Warriors general manager Mike Dunleavy Jr., who just signed his own extension, per ESPN. When asked about the core last month, Dunleavy told The San Francisco Standard: “It's hard to picture this team without Steph, without Draymond, without Steve. I don't really picture those things. But if we're operating in absolutes, it's impossible for me to guarantee anything.”

Here is what Dunleavy is staring at: a 38-year-old point guard playing through runner's knee, a 36-year-old defensive anchor grabbing at his leg while locking down Kawhi Leonard in a win-or-go-home game, a 36-year-old running mate rehabbing a torn ACL, a 23-year-old wing out with a blown-up knee, and a 60-year-old coach who may or may not want the job.

Call it a crossroads if you want. It looks like an off-ramp.

The Warriors have their own first-round picks in 2026, 2028, 2030 (if it lands 1 to 20), and 2032, plus swaps in the odd-numbered years. That's a decade of draft capital that, in theory, is enough to package for one last star trade around Curry. In reality, the Warriors have been trying that and failing. They pushed for Kawhi Leonard at the deadline for a discount and the Clippers had no interest. They had chances at Pascal Siakam, Lauri Markkanen, Trey Murphy, and Michael Porter Jr. and passed. Giannis Antetokounmpo probably isn't walking through that door. 

Which leaves the status quo or a full rebuild. Nine players can hit free agency this summer. That stockpile of draft picks could be used for a trade, but it also creates a clear runway to cleanly enter a rebuild.

Friday night at the podium, Curry showed up in a hat that said Trophy Hunting. The hat still fits. Everything else is 50-50.