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The defending NBA champions open as the top seed in the Western Conference for the third straight year when the Oklahoma City Thunder hosts the Phoenix Suns in the opening game of the first round of the playoffs.

With a quirky offense and thorn-in-the-side defenders like Dillon Brooks, Phoenix could cause headaches for the defending champs.

However, my Suns vs. Thunder predictions and NBA picks call for OKC to solve the puzzle and roll to a solid cover.

Suns vs Thunder predictionSuns vs Thunder best bet: Thunder -13 (-110)

The Oklahoma City Thunder had the best defensive rating in the NBA and allowed the second-fewest points, despite not playing at an exceedingly slow pace. The Thunder essentially took the last week of the regular season off, benching 10 rotation players.

That means a team that struggled with injury all year has had 11 days of rest.

Prior to the season-ending shutdown, OKC was clicking. The Thunder had won seven straight, going 5-2 ATS before their skeleton crew dropped the last two regular-season contests.

The Phoenix Suns were the last team to make the field, beating Golden State on Friday in the play-in tournament. Phoenix won two of five against OKC this season, going 3-2 ATS, including going 2-1 ATS in Oklahoma City.

However, one of those games was the regular-season finale, where both teams rested their starters and key bench players. There's a good chance some of the players who participated in that Suns win will even suit up for this series.

The Suns' fluid, pass-intensive offense is something the Thunder didn't see every day, and Phoenix had a top-10 defense. OKC has done well against the Suns' D this season, however, averaging 125 points in the four games where starters played.

That's six points above their season average and 14 more than Phoenix allowed. They also held the Suns to 106 points, more than a half-dozen below Phoenix's average.

Suns vs Thunder same-game parlay

OKC ranked 16th in the NBA in pace this season. Phoenix won't be trying to speed things up—it ranked 24th in pace. Last season, the Thunder turned up the defensive pressure in the postseason. 

Scoring dropped by eight combined points per game in the first-round series and seven points per game in the Thunder's entire playoff run.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been an MVP performer against the Suns this season. He averaged 30 points per game and hit half of his three-point attempts. He also hit 51% of his two-point shots, an area where the Suns were weak this season, allowing opponents to shoot .556 on the inside.

Suns vs Thunder SGP

• Thunder -13
• Under 215.5 points
• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 29.5 points

Our "from downtown" SGP: Dishing and Swishing!

SGA has also dished out 7.3 assists per game against the Suns this season. He had 33 assists in four April games. Getting plus odds on a 6.5 assist cutoff seems like a gift.

Jalen Green was blazing hot during the play-in games, scoring 35 and 36 and hitting eight treys against the Warriors. Getting plus odds on him also seems out of whack.

Isaiah Hartenstein averaged 9.2 rebounds this season and averaged 10.3 in games when he played at least 20 minutes. 

Suns vs Thunder SGP

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 29.5 points
• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 6.5 assists
• Jalen Green Over 2.5 made threes
• Isaiah Hartenstein Over 8.5 rebounds

Suns vs Thunder odds for Game 1

• Spread: Suns +13 | Thunder -13
• Moneyline: Suns +561 | Thunder -800
• Over/Under: Over 215.5 | Under 215.5

Suns vs Thunder betting trend to know

The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the Team Total Under in 17 of their last 24 games at home (+9.05 Units / 33% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Suns vs. Thunder.

How to watch Suns vs Thunder Game 1 Suns vs Thunder latest injuries

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