With two weeks to go in the regular season, there is still much to be decided in the NBA’s playoff picture. Who are the favorites in the East and West? What are the most intriguing playoff races to watch? And which first-round matchups would be must-see TV? Our writers break it all down.

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Who’s the favorite in the East?

Ben Rohrbach: Celtics. Given Cade Cunningham’s injury (collapsed lung) for the Pistons, the inherent issues of counting Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns as the New York Knicks’ two best players, and the track record of both James Harden and the Cavaliers, I think it’s Boston — with Jayson Tatum in tow — by default. Here’s a question: Is Jaylen Brown the most dependable superstar in the conference? There’s a chance Tatum enters that conversation, and that chance makes Boston the favorite.

Kelly Iko: Cavaliers.I think there’s enough parity in the East that it’s nearly impossible to pinpoint an exact favorite. For the sake of this exercise, I’m going with Cleveland. Adding James Harden and Max Strus gives the Cavs an edge against playoff defenses that will attempt to plug as many holes as possible. There’s also something to be said about the Harden-Strus synergy; Cleveland is outscoring opponents by 22 points per 100 possessions when both are on the floor. The Cavs defend at a top-five rate, probably have the best bench in the conference and, oh yeah, have Donovan Mitchell. They are more than just a dark horse, they’re flat-out dangerous. 

Morten Stig Jensen: Celtics. While it's tempting to say the Pistons, I just don't trust their floor-spacing enough. So it's the Celtics, with the Cavaliers as my backup choice. The 3-point shooting, the defense, the return of Tatum, it's all just too much to ignore.

Dan Devine: Pistons. Surely someone must stand up for, y’know, the actual No. 1 seed in the conference. I know the arguments against Detroit: below-average half-court scoring efficiency; bottom-third of the league in 3-point makes, attempts and accuracy; the NBA’s highest foul rate; no dependable off-the-bounce shot creation outside of Cade Cunningham, whose expected return date remains up in the air.

But I also know this: The Pistons are an East-best 30-14 against .500-or-better opponents and an NBA-best 15-6 against opponents with top-10 point differentials; they are now 10-3 without Cunningham, with the net rating of a 52-win team with him off the floor; and we haven’t heard anything yet to suggest that they’re going to be without him entirely (or at all) in the postseason. We’ve also seen the Pistons hold on to first place sinceNov. 7. That ought to buy a little bit more of a benefit of the doubt, no?

Who’s the favorite in the West?

Devine: Thunder. It’s impossible not to be impressed by the closing kick the Spurs have put together, going 24-2 since the start of February; it’s maybe worth noting, though, that the Thunder have gone 21-5 in the same span, despite being without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander for 10 of those games and without Jalen Williams for 20 of them. They finally have their full team back now, and as emphatic as San Antonio’s wins over OKC were back in December, I still feel like I’m going to need to see someone beat them four times in spring before I pick against them.

Joshua Gateley via Getty Images

Iko: Thunder.San Antonio is essentially America’s team right now, but it will be a cold day down there before I discount the reigning champs and the deepest team in the league on the verge of 60 wins before 20 losses. Gilgeous-Alexander’s heroics against New York, reaffirming his case for Clutch Player of the Year, and a fully healthy core is enough for me to get on board. Add that to the league’s No. 1 defense — which is second in opponent turnover and free throw rate — and it’s clear why Oklahoma City is not a place teams will want to be come April. Or May. Or June.

Jensen: Spurs. I know, I know, the Thunder exist, and they're sharp when healthy. But that last part is what concerns me this year. They're just available to the same extent as last year, so this seems like the year to beat them. The team most likely to do so? The Spurs, along with their utterly ridiculous defense. 

Rohrbach: Thunder. I do think Victor Wembanyama’s Spurs, who have lost only twice since January, are right there with OKC as co-favorites, but tie goes to a defending champion that owns the NBA’s best record and net rating. They are the deepest and most well-rounded outfit, and they are led by Gilgeous-Alexander, who is either the league’s top player or on par with them. Give me a Thunder team bettered by its experience of having just won together. 

What’s the most intriguing playoff race to watch down?

Iko: Am I lame for saying the race for the No. 1 seed out West? It’s less about the actual playoff seeding and more about potential domino effects on public perception and regular-season awards. The Thunder have the league’s hardest close, according to Tankathon: the Lakers twice, Pistons, Nuggets, Suns and Clippers. You also have to consider the potential resting that playoff teams do around this time of year, which would open the door for the Spurs — who are just 2.5 games back and seem desperate to push for it — to make the jump.

Jensen: The West’s No. 3 seed. This will be highly subjective, but the Lakers and Nuggets are basically neck and neck, and there's something exciting about the internal competition between Luka Dončić and Nikola Jokić, just in regards to who ends up with the higher seed. 

Rohrbach: The race for the East’s final four playoff seeds is fascinating. Three wins separate the Nos. 5 and 10 seeds. The Raptors and Hawks are currently in position to finish fifth and sixth, securing the final two guaranteed playoff berths, and I’m not sure either scares a top-four seed. Same goes for the Orlando Magic and Miami Heat. But two lingerers — the Philadelphia 76ers and Charlotte Hornets, if they can secure a playoff berth, even in the play-in tournament — could be real threats. But there’s no guarantee either even makes it so far.

Devine: I like Ben’s pick, but I’ll go with the Nos. 3 through 6 spots in the West, because all of the different prospective first-round combinations are pretty fascinating. Lakers-Rockets gives us LeBron vs. KD (and Amen Thompson guarding Luka, which, yes, please). Lakers-Wolves and Nuggets-Wolves would both offer a resumption of postseason unpleasantries. Nuggets-Rockets would be a styles-make-fights affair, seeing if Houston’s physical and grimy defense can slow down Nikola Jokić and Jamal Murray. I’m not sure that any of these four teams would be particularly excited to see any of the other three combatants in a seven-game series, which is the sort of thing that can lead to highly charged — and, hopefully, highly entertaining — hoops.

What’s the first-round matchup you’d most like to see?

Rohrbach: Nuggets-Timberwolves — two actual contenders — is pretty incredible for a first-round matchup, and we are currently headed in that direction. That either Nikola Jokić or Anthony Edwards could be sent home so early is wild. The Nuggets beat the Wolves en route to their 2023 title, and Minnesota repaid the favor a year later in a seven-game slugfest on their way to the first of consecutive conference finals appearances. More, por favor.

Jensen: Give me Thunder-Warriors, pending a healthy Stephen Curry. The Dubs may be old, but they can answer the call, and it'd be an insanely intriguing series centered around the old guard against the new generation. 

Devine: The second-seeded Celtics against the seventh-seeded, finally fully healthy 76ers. Boston vs. Philly has been, in recent years, some real Hammer vs. Nail business. But I think it’d be fun, just once, to see the Sixers enter the postseason both with a full complement of weapons and without any weight of expectations, and see if Tyrese Maxey, Joel Embiid and Paul George can’t make the favored C’s sweat just a little bit.

Iko: Hornets-Pistons in the East, Suns-Spurs in the West. The basketball gods are going to bless us, and it will be glorious. The storylines are endless; tactical battles between Charles Lee and J.B. Bickerstaff; Dillon Brooks’ quest to tame Victor Wembanyama; LaMelo Ball’s first taste of actual postseason hoops and Charlotte’s party-crasher energy; Devin Booker/Jalen Green against San Antonio’s three-guard monster. I can’t wait. 

Make one bold prediction for the rest of the regular season.

Devine: Orlando — desperate for a shake-up with their vibes getting sourer and sourer with every loss (and subsequent postgame comment about how folks weren’t on the same page) — takes a page from the book of the 2024-25 Nuggets and Grizzlies, firing Jamahl Mosley mere days before the start of the play-in tournament. It doesn’t really help, and the Magic still enter the summer with a lot of questions to answer about how to get where they want to go.

Iko: The Sacramento Kings finish with the NBA’s worst record, “leapfrogging” Brooklyn, Washington and Indiana to properly position themselves ahead of commissioner Adam Silver’s impending changes to the draft lottery. This has been a tank war for the ages, and I pray we never see anything like this again. My goodness.

Jensen: The remaining eight or so games will have enormous MVP influence, due to the tight race, starring four key candidates, and we should all enjoy it.

Rohrbach: The Spurs match the Thunder for the NBA’s best record, and because they beat the defending champions four times in five tries, they secure the tiebreaker, taking a No. 1 seed into the Western Conference playoffs. As a result, Wembanyama edges SGA in the MVP voting, too. Then, we are treated to an actual matchup of the league’s last two MVPs — and a referendum on this year’s race — in the conference finals, where they decide for real who is most valuable.

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