With the Bucks now nine games out of the final spot in the play-in tournament, multipleprojectionmodels give them virtually zerochance of qualifying for the postseason. At 29-43, tied for the ninth-worst record in the NBA, the Bucks have a 17.3% chance of landing a top-four pick in the 2026 NBA Draft Lottery, and a 3.8% chance of jumping up to first overall, according to Tankathon — odds that could conceivably improve if they finished the season by losing a handful more games than the 25-48 New Orleans Pelicans, who are 4.5 games “above” Milwaukee in the reverse standings, but who have been playing significantly better than the Bucks for quite some time, and who owe their first-round pick to the Atlanta Hawks and thus have no incentive to lose.

That inverted incentive, it appears, is at the heart of the ongoing dispute in Milwaukee. The Athletic’s Nehm reported on March 18 that the Bucks had approached Antetokounmpo about sitting out the rest of the season, and that the perennial All-NBA selection had rejected the idea. Six days — and three more Bucks losses — later, the NBPA issued its statement.

“The Player Participation Policy was designed by the league to hold teams accountable and ensure that when an All-Star like Giannis Antetokounmpo is healthy and ready to play, he is on the court,” the statement read. “Unfortunately, anti-tanking policies are only as effective as their enforcement; fans, broadcast partners, and the integrity of the game itself will continue to suffer as long as ownership goes unchecked. We look forward to collaborating with the NBA on meaningful new proposals that will directly address and discourage tanking.”

NBA Commissioner Adam Silver discussed the union’s statement on Antetokounmpo during a press conference following the league’s Board of Governors meeting on Wednesday.

"Prior to that press release from the players association, we were not aware there was an issue," Silver said Wednesday. "We knew Giannis was injured. He was within the sort of usual period it was taking to come back from that injury. So I was a bit surprised by that press release. Yes, when our players association announces they see an issue, of course we'll look into it. So that's where it currently stands."

Rivers, for his part, downplayed Silver’s response.

"I don't think it's a big deal,” he said, according to Jim Owczarski of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel. “Maybe you don't know this, but they look into every injury. This is nothing new. Probably because it's been talked about, [Silver] felt the need to say something, but I've not been on a team where when you have injuries, they don't look at it. So I don't think it's anything new."

Hanging over all discussion of Antetokounmpo’s availability and prospective return to the floor: a year (really, many years) worth of rumors, reporting, speculation and scuttlebutt over whether or not the 31-year-old has determined, or might determine, that his best chance of competing for another NBA championship might lie elsewhere, and that the time has come for him to leave the franchise that drafted him in 2013.

When the Bucks held on to Antetokounmpo at February’s trade deadline, that delayed any decisions on his future to the offseason, when he’ll become eligible for a four-year, $275 million maximum-salaried contract extension.

“Giannis is going into the last year [of his contract],” Bucks controlling owner Wes Edens recently told ESPN’s Ramona Shelburne. “So one of two things will happen: Either he will be extended or he’ll be traded. The likelihood you’ll let him just kind of play out the last year, we can’t afford that. It’s not consistent with what’s good for the organization.”

The operative questions appear to be whether putting Antetokounmpo back on the floor before the April 12 season finale against the Philadelphia 76ers — thus potentially reducing the Bucks’ odds of losing enough to climb the lottery standings, and potentially increasing the chances that Giannis sustains another leg injury that could diminish his trade value this summer — would represent “what’s good for the organization,” and whether that should matter at all if Antetokounmpo, in fact, is healthy enough to play.

For right now, though, Rivers insists those questions are irrelevant, because Antetokounmpo, in fact, is not.

“Our focus right now is just getting him healthy,” Rivers told reporters. “We’re just trying to get Giannis cleared and healthy; that’s our only focus. All the other stuff, we stay above.”