yahoo - 3/25/2026 11:17:36 AM - GMT (+2 )
While the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament delivered mostly chalk results, there are a few surprises in the Sweet 16, led by No. 11 seed Texas and No. 9 Iowa.
The Longhorns, while not much of a Cinderella due to its school's stature as one of the most well-known brands in college sports, has already won three games in the Big Dance, after taking down NC State in the First Four before upsetting No. 6 BYU and No. 3 Gonzaga to set up a bout with No. 2 Purdue.
Re-seeding Sweet 16 teams: Separating the contenders from pretenders
No. 9 Iowa, meanwhile, has the upset of the NCAA Tournament so far. The Hawkeyes defeated No. 1 Florida 73-72 on a game-winning 3-pointer from Alvaro Folgueiras for a spot against Big Ten-foe Nebraska in an all-Midwest matchup (in the South Region) — The Battle for the Corn.
Three No. 1 seeds — Duke, Arizona and Michigan — still remain. Will one of them be knocked off before the Final Four?
Here's a look at our five most likely upsets of the Sweet 16:
Ranking 5 most likely Sweet 16 upsets in Men's March Madness 20265. No. 11 Texas over No. 2 PurdueBetMGM odds: Purdue (-6.5)
Texas runs into a tough Sweet 16 matchup against Big Ten tournament champion Purdue, winners of 10 straight.
Why Texas will upset: Chaos? The Longhorns have already beat two teams in a row that were favored against them, why not make it three in a row? Texas will need a huge performance from Dailyn Swain, who leads the team in points (17.4), assists (7.5), rebounds (3.5) and steals (1.7) this season. Seven-foot sophomore Matas Vokietaitis can also match up with Purdue's frontcourt, and he's averaging 18.3 points and 11 rebounds per game in the NCAA Tournament so far.
Why Texas won't upset: Purdue has too much offense and is peaking at the right time. Star guard Braden Smith was held to 3-of-12 shooting for 12 points against Miami in the second round, but Fletcher Loyer was there to pick up the slack with 24 points on a wildly efficient 6-of-7 shooting. Any of Smith, Loyer, Trey Kaufman-Renn and even center Oscar Cluff can cause fits for an opposing defense.
4. No. 4 Arkansas over No. 1 ArizonaBetMGM odds: Arizona -(7.5)
Two high-powered offenses meet for a spot in the Elite Eight after Arkansas fended off Cinderella-hopeful No. 12 High Point in the second round.
Why Arkansas will upset: Darius Acuff Jr. proves he's the best player on the floor. Acuff Jr. is already one of John Calipari's best freshman guards ever and is on a postseason heater, coming off a 36-point, 6-assist performance against the Panthers in the second round. The former five-star prospect can take over games, having scored 30 or more in three of Arkansas' last five games, all of which were wins.
Why Arkansas won't upset: Arizona is simply a wagon right now and looks like arguably the best team in the country. The Wildcats have everything, from a veteran guard in Big 12 Player of the Year Jaden Bradley, to a giant frontcourt with Motiejus Krivas and Koa Peat, and a pure bucket-getter in Brayden Burries.
BetMGM odds: Iowa State (-4.5)
Tennessee already has an upset under its belt this NCAA Tournament beating No. 3 Virginia in the second round. The Vols aren't a typical No. 6 seed, having now reached the Sweet 16 for the fourth consecutive season.
Why Tennessee will upset: Iowa State being without Joshua Jefferson. If All-American forward Joshua Jefferson is out against Tennessee, it gives the Vols an advantage. There's no doubt he's Iowa State best player. Senior guard Ja'Kobi Gillespie has been impressive through two games, with 50 combined points and 15 assists against Miami (Ohio) and Virginia, making him capable of taking over a game.
Why Tennessee won't upset: Iowa State guard Tamin Lipsey. The fourth-year player has started all 136 games in his career and is coming off a career-best performance against Kentucky, scoring 26 points with 10 assists and five steals. The hometown kid from Ames, Iowa, is a pesky defender, having made three straight All-Big 12 defensive teams. Gillespie vs. Lipsey will be a guard matchup to watch.
2. No. 5 St. John's over No. 1 DukeBetMGM odds: Duke (-6.5)
Legendary St. John's coach Rick Pitino proved 2025 was a fluke after the Red Storm were upset by No. 10 Arkansas as a No. 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament last season, surpassing the first weekend in 2026 with wins over Northern Iowa and Kansas on a game-winning layup by Dylan Darling.
Why St. John's will upset: Rick Pitino. St. John's has one of the greatest game planners in college basketball history on its sideline. Duke also wasn't impressive in the first weekend, trailing No. 16 Siena by 11 points at halftime before starting slow against No. 9 TCU in an eventual 81-58 win in Round 2. The Johnnies can also match up with Cameron Boozer in the frontcourt, led by Big East Player of the Year Zuby Ejiofor and Bryce Hopkins.
Why St. John's won't upset: Duke found something in the second half against TCU, outscoring the Horned Frogs 43-24 in the second half. Everyone knows Duke boasts one of, if not the most talented roster in college basketball, and Cayden Boozer has filled in admirably since entering the starting lineup, with 19 points and five assists against Siena, along with nine points and another five assists against TCU.
1. No. 9 Iowa over No. 4 NebraskaBetMGM odds: Nebraska (-1.5)
Iowa and Nebraska have already faced twice this season, splitting the regular-season series. The Hawkeyes defeated Nebraska 57-52 in February behind Bennett Stirtz' 25 points, and they're obviously playing their best basketball of the season right now after upsetting Florida.
Why Iowa will upset: It defeated Florida despite Stirtz not being at his best. He was 5-of-16 shooting against the Gators for 13 points, despite averaging 19.7 points with 2.7 rebounds and 4.5 assists per game. Iowa also has first-year coach Ben McCollum, who's proving himself as a March weapon with three NCAA Tournament wins in his two Division I seasons at Drake and Iowa.
Why Iowa won't upset: Nebraska's hot shooting has been an issue through two rounds, especially with its home crowd taking over arenas. The Cornhuskers could very well turn Toyota Center in Houston into a home-court advantage again like they did at the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, and it's clear the fans were a boost to Nebraska's chances.
Sweet 16 predictions: Who will advance to Elite 8?∎ USA TODAY Sports staff made their picks. Check them out here.
∎ How'd we do in our original predictions? We grade our selections.
Who will advance to Final Four?Some of us have revised our Final Four predictions after Florida's loss to Iowa busted our brackets.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Ranking 5 most likely March Madness upsets in NCAA Tournament Sweet 16
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