Cinderella, the floor is yours.

Last year’s NCAA Tournament belonged to the 1-seeds. This one might, too, with an excellent lineup of Duke, Arizona, Michigan and Florida atop the seeding.

Underdogs own the tournament's first week, though. Even in a quiet year for upsets, last season’s bracket saw two No. 12 seeds supply first-round upsets, plus an 11-seed and two 10-seeds.

So, who's primed to supply heroics this year? First-round triumphs by a No. 9 seed hardly qualify as upsets, so we're looking for teams seeded no better than No. 10 as our possible Cinderellas.

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From the 10- through 14-seed line, here are my teams that offer top Cinderella potential:

No. 10 Santa Clara

First-round opponent: (7) Kentucky

This is Santa Clara’s first NCAA Tournament bid in 30 years. It got here with an offense that can score 80-plus points with relative ease. Two wins against Saint Mary’s proved Santa Clara’s mettle. Santa Clara coach Herb Sendek, a former Kentucky assistant under Rick Pitino, has won NCAA Tournament games with three different schools.

No. 10 Missouri

First-round opponent: (7) Miami

The Tigers received a better seed than they deserved after going 5-5 down the stretch. Along with the seed, the committee gave Missouri the gift of a de facto home game in St. Louis. Tigers guard Mark Mitchell used to be a starter at Duke, and he’s going out strong as a senior. He dropped 32 points in each of his last two games.

No. 11 South Florida

First-round opponent: (6) Louisville

USF coach Bryan Hodgson used to be an assistant for Alabama’s Nate Oats. You can see it in the way the Bulls play. Much like Alabama, USF never saw a 3-point shot it didn’t like to launch. If the Bulls get hot, they can add to their 11-game win streak. USF is 8-5 in games against Quad 1 and Quad 2 opponents. That’s enough to make a 6-seed sweat.

No. 11 VCU

First-round opponent: (6) North Carolina

VCU needs no introduction to the Cinderella role. Fifteen years ago, it went from First Four to Final Four. The red-hot Rams have won 16 of their last 17 games. The 3-point shot is an equalizer in games like this, and VCU shoots well from the perimeter, including 11 3s in the Atlantic-10 Tournament championship win over Dayton.

No. 12 Northern Iowa

First-round opponent: (5) St. John’s

The Missouri Valley enjoys a rich history of NCAA Tournament upsets. That includes Northern Iowa stunning No. 1 Kansas to reach the Sweet 16 in 2010. Ben Jacobson coached that team. He’s still coaching UNI. True to Jacobson’s brand, this team plays tough defense. Each of his last three teams that reached the NCAA Tournament won at least one game.

No. 12 Akron

First-round opponent: (5) Texas Tech

All of the attention on 31-win Miami (Ohio) overshadowed Akron winning the Mid-American Conference Tournament. The Zips have been playing like the MAC’s best team for the past month. An excellent shooting team, they average nearly 11 3-pointers per game. One of those sharpshooters, Tavari Johnson, averages more than 20 points.

No. 13 Hofstra

First-round opponent: (4) Alabama

Hofstra went 2-0 against ACC teams. Granted, those wins came against Pittsburgh and Syracuse, two of the ACC’s worst teams. Hofstra will need a big game from super scorer Cruz Davis, who shoots nearly 40% from 3-point range. My knock on Hofstra? Hofstra Flying Dutchmen sounds way better than Hofstra Pride. The school never should’ve rebranded.

No. 14 North Dakota State

First-round opponent: (3) Michigan State

The Bison didn’t play any top-tier competition in the regular season, but they were excellent within the Summit League. They shoot it well from 3-point range, and the lineup is filled with veterans. A dozen years ago, North Dakota State delivered an upset from the 12-seed line. An upset in this one would be more stunning, a true glass slipper moment.

Blake Toppmeyer is a columnist for the USA TODAY Network. Email him at BToppmeyer@gannett.com and follow him on X @btoppmeyer.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Most likely upsets March Madness 2026: NCAA Tournament predictions

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