With the dust having settled on McLaren's sudden release of Alex Dunne, Sky Sports F1 assess how the young Irish star becoming a free agent could impact the driver market.

Ahead of last weekend's Singapore Grand Prix, a McLaren announcement came from nowhere stating that the team had ended its contract with the 19-year-old, who had been part of their driver development programme for the last two years.

Given his impressive F1 debut in Austrian Grand Prix practice in June and a solid showing this year in Formula 2, Dunne seemed an ideal candidate for McLaren to keep hold of in the event they were to lose either Oscar Piastri or Lando Norris at some point in the next few years.

Therefore, attention quickly switched to what could have been behind the highly-rated Dunne's release, with it only being a matter of hours before reports emerged of Red Bull's interest in signing him.

Red Bull motorsport advisor Helmut Marko, who plays a key role in the selection of drivers for both the senior team and junior squad Racing Bulls, would confirm later in the weekend that he has been in talks with Dunne's camp.

"Alex Dunne is a very fast, aggressive, young driver," Marko told Sky Germany. "That makes him a good fit for Red Bull.

"And because he's absolutely free now, revoked by mutual agreement with McLaren, that's someone we will talk to for sure."

While the mystery of where the teenager is taking his talents appeared to be solved almost instantly, the question remains as to whether he will go straight into a race seat with his new employers.

Would Dunne's arrival spell the end for Tsunoda and Lawson?

Isack Hadjar's brilliant performances for Racing Bulls during his rookie campaign have put him in pole position to drive alongside Max Verstappen at Red Bull next season.

Liam Lawson, who started the season at Red Bull before remarkably being relegated back to Racing Bulls after just two races, has been comprehensively outperformed by Hadjar.

While Yuki Tsunoda, who was promoted from Racing Bulls to partner Verstappen, has struggled badly, scoring points in just three out of his 16 races for the team.

It has been heavily rumoured that Red Bull junior driver Arvid Lindblad, who is competing against Dunne in F2 this season, will take one of the seats at Racing Bulls for 2026.

Most had therefore assumed it would be a battle to the end of the season between Lawson and Tsunoda to earn a seat alongside Lindblad, with the other likely to be without a 2026 seat.

But the prospective signing of Dunne alters the dynamic, with the Irishman's presence giving the Red Bull hierarchy another option during the 2026 season should any of their drivers be underperforming.

While it seems unlikely Dunne would be chosen to start the season for Racing Bulls, management have repeatedly shown they are not afraid of making in-season changes, whether that be early or late in the year.

Why would McLaren let Dunne leave?

The obvious answer to this is that McLaren chief executive Zak Brown and team principal Andrea Stella are very happy with their line-up of Piastri and Norris.

Piastri signed a multi-year extension earlier this year that is understood to tie him to the team until at the end of 2028, while Norris is understood to be contracted until the end of 2027.

It therefore seems highly unlikely that the line-up would change any time soon, but F1's driver market has proven to be extremely unpredictable over the years, with contracts sometimes not proving to be worth the paper they are written on.

Mercedes are expected to resume their attempts to sign Verstappen in 2027, having failed earlier this year to convince him to join in 2026.

If such a move were to eventually happen, it could result in a reshuffle among the top teams, with Norris and Piastri sure to be under consideration if Red Bull were left seeking a replacement for Verstappen.

It also remains to be seen how long Lewis Hamilton will continue for, with the 40-year-old's deal at Ferrari understood to expire at the end of the 2026 season.

Given it's not impossible Piastri or Norris could look elsewhere at some point, a team of McLaren's quality would no doubt want to have a contingency plan in place, which is what made Dunne's complete release - with no clauses - a surprise.

It might also suggest that McLaren are keeping close tabs on the previous driver they allowed to depart their junior system, Gabriel Bortoleto, who has delivered a hugely impressive rookie campaign at Sauber.

It was reported when Bortoleto left McLaren last year that the team had retained some sort of future option on the Brazilian, which could in part explain them allowing Dunne to leave.

F1's title race now heads back to North America, with the United States Grand Prix in Austin up first on October 17-19 live on Sky Sports F1. Stream Sky Sports with NOW - no contract, cancel anytime

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